Keeping Things in Perspective

Mud season has arrived on the farm, with snow piles receding, the gravel lane growing soupy, the compost and manure piles waking up with their familiar fragrances. The animals are stir-crazy, ready to shake off winter and dreaming of green grasses to come. My ducks are thrilled that puddles have returned, and the pigs are much more active, spending time outside rooting through the slush and scratching on the fence.
I haven’t left the farm since late March last year, and being here, I can almost imagine there isn’t a pandemic raging in our world that has now taken the lives of over half a million Americans. Here, maple syrup season keeps its erratic rhythm with warm, sunny days and chilly nights. The tips of every branch are swelling as the buds prepare their entrance, and birds begin singing their spring songs. Nature is keeping time, even as our human world struggles.
And yet reminders of the pandemic are also everywhere, from the mask, face shield, and hand sanitizer at the front door of Farmstead Creamery, ready for me to don with each “curbside” (or its rural equivalent) pickup. We received a notice just the other day from our local health inspector that workers of Retail Food Establishments (like our Farmstead Creamery) are now eligible for the vaccine as front-line workers.
A family physician, my Mom has been keeping close watch on the medical literature on the pandemic, updating us daily on the latest study, finding, or recommendation. Her keen understanding of what is happening and how this virus works has helped us all stay safe and healthy during this crisis, keeping our farm and business running even amidst unstable and ever-changing circumstances. I wanted to share some of her latest notes with you.
The current vaccines are an important tool for curbing the destruction of the pandemic—a tool that we should use. However, it is important to note that the vaccine lessens the symptoms of COVID-19—it does not prevent you from contracting the disease or transmitting it to others. This is not a panacea or a free pass to normalcy, much as we might like it to be. It’s important to keep this in perspective, as the social pressure will be strong this year to use the vaccine as a reason to return to a pre-COVID lifestyle, which could be devastating should mutations in the virus make the vaccine ineffective. These mutations are already happening, creating more virulent and deadly strains.
When I think of the situation, an agrarian illustration comes to mind. Let me share how we manage raising our sheep on our farm, which is tucked withing the boundaries of the Chequamegon National Forest. This means that there are plenty of predators in the vicinity that would love lamb chop for dinner, and we must always be diligent. From the beginning, our protocol has been to lock all the animals into barns at night—always. Predators are most active under the cover of darkness, which is also when we tend to not be up and about, watching for them. Over the years, we’ve added multiple layers of electric fencing and guard donkeys, but still we maintain the original plan of everyone being locked up safe at night. Just because we have good fences and guard animals doesn’t lure us into thinking we’re completely safe. We still take those extra, original precautions. This, so far, has kept our sheep safe from predation for the last 20 years.
However, letting your guard down because of extra safety measures is a very human characteristic. There’s even a term for it—the Peltzman Effect.
An economist at the University of Chicago, Dr. Peltzman focused his research on the human tolerance of risk, using the mandate of wearing seatbelts as an example. The premise was that universal seatbelt wearing would reduce the number of automobile fatalities. Unfortunately, not only were fatalities not reduced, they increased. Why? Through his studies, Peltzman found that most of us accept a certain level of tolerable risk in our lives. Each person has a different threshold for “tolerable risk,” but it’s still there. When a safety measure is added that makes people feel safer (e.g., wearing a seatbelt), they will often increase behaviors formerly thought to be too risky in order to reach the same balance of overall tolerable risk.
Peltzman theorized that four attributes had to be in place in order for the Peltzman Effect to kick into gear. We can see all four of them are also happening in our current situation:
1. The new measure that makes the situation safer must be visible (hard to miss a needle in the arm receiving a vaccine).
2. People must be motivated to do risky behavior (gathering together, eating at restaurants, etc.).
3. People must have control over or the ability to increase their risky behavior (relaxed mandates, COVID fatigue).
4. The new safety measure must be effective enough that they feel comfortable doing what was previously considered too risky (data that the vaccines are 90% effective in reducing symptoms).
We’re all going to feel the lure of the Peltzman Effect this year, which can be a false sense of security that encourages riskier behavior. I care about all of you who read this story, and I want you to be safe and healthy as we make it through this crisis. The virus, like the wolves, is ever diligent, waiting for us to let the guard down. Let’s keep our yearnings for normalcy in perspective, that we might all come through these dark times to a brighter future we make together. See you down on the farm sometime.